A few months ago, during the most vicious exchanges in the 2016 US presidential election, a popular refrain among those dismayed by both the Republican and Democratic nominees seem to have been, “Thank God for Kaine and Pence.” This was because both of these understudies – each sober, experienced and mature men without hint of scandals -- seemed by comparison to be preferable as candidates to the top of each ticket. Observers in and out of the Washington Beltway breathed easier knowing that, despite whoever won, Clinton and Trump had successors who could step up if so needed.
That vague reassurance, more hope than any tangible evidence, has now fallen on Mike Pence.
FDR’s first Vice President, John Nance Garner, infamously said that the office was not worth a “bucket of warm spit”, (though historians argue that actual last word seems to have been a considerably more colourful – and putrid – word).
Being VP (or “Veep”) can at times be a thankless task. For all the talk of proximity to power, of being “a heartbeat away from the presidency”, the position is entirely subject to what the president, and the incumbent in the role, makes of it.
Constitutionally, the VP’s sole duty is to preside over the Senate and, when needed, cast a tie-breaking vote. Otherwise his (or her) only written duty is to wait around in case the Unthinkable happens -- which it has, as eight commanders in chief have died in office. Another, Richard Nixon, resigned before he was impeached. Five vice presidents have gone directly from that office to the presidency via election.
A) The Pence Image
From the moment last July when Trump picked Pence as his running mate, through the first five months of this administration, the vice president has been all but invisible in the parade of palace intrigue stories detailing the rivalries, alliances, backstabbing, self-promoting and butt-kissing inside Trump’s reality-TV style presidency. That is no accident: Pence made clear to everyone around him when he was selected, and again at the outset of the administration, that the spotlight belongs to Trump. Leaking, speaking out of turn or doing anything that could be perceived as upstaging the Boss would not be tolerated.
His discreet inconspicuousness is engineered to keep all eyes on the president. But it’s also necessary to guard against whispers that he, not Trump, is really running the show--a narrative fuelled both by Pence’s standing in the party and by the fact that he has been empowered to establish, extol (sell) and execute the administration’s agenda. Five months into the Trump era -- and less than a year since he was plucked from a problematic re-election battle in Indiana -- Pence, once an electorally endangered small-state governor, has become arguably the most popular Republican in the country and has quietly accumulated a considerable cachet of “soft” power. He is deeply involved with nearly every major decision coming from the White House, whether it be the withdrawal from the Paris climate accord or the appointment of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court. He is the administration’s most effective and reassuring messenger, often because of his license to clarify, soften or even correct things said by his boss. And he is widely viewed by Republicans on Capitol Hill as the de facto leader of the GOP (unlike the increasingly hapless Paul Ryan) -- not just the safety parachute for a presidency that just might go into uncontrolled free-fall at any time, but as a polished, respected statesman from whom members can take their cues.
Before assuming the vice presidency, Pence looked to George H.W. Bush-- not Dick Cheney or Dan Quayle, two men Pence knows personally--as the model for his approach to the job. The point he is making is about the man Bush 41 served, Ronald Reagan, and the parallels Pence sees with his own boss. But there’s another item worth considering: neither Cheney nor Quayle ever became president. George H.W. Bush did.
In reality, Pence’s role is more like Cheney’s than any recent vice president, Republicans say, given the considerable influence he wields. But the VP is mindful that Cheney’s relationship with W. became fragile when people started to project Cheney as being in charge. Steve Bannon paid that price when he allowed himself to be publicly lauded as Trump’s Svengali, saw his wings clipped by being booted off the National Security Council, and has since adopted a far lower profile.
B) What If?
I f anyone has learned anything it’s never to write off Donald Trump, who has time and again displayed a resilience and survivability that has both surprised and vexed his critics. So the “I” word that is passing like a brisk wind of hot air in private conversations all over D.C. and left of centre media will not be mentioned, as for the moment, there is no “smoking gun” petard by which he can be hoisted . For all his self-inflicted wounds, it’s hard to see “Mogul” (his Secret Service nickname) stepping down or being toppled.
But suppose that for whatever reason Trump should cede the presidency to his vice president -- say the president makes America great again ahead of schedule (!) or, alternatively, decides he’s sick of the “witch hunts” or takes ill, -- one might ask what kind of world and what challenges President Mike Pence (code named “Hoosier”) would face.
The answer is, quite simply, a bunch of trouble. Indeed, with the possible exception of Gerald Ford, Pence would be confronted with some of the most virulent political and national security headwinds of any unelected commander in chief in US history. Of those who have assumed the office unexpectedly, none has done so whilst facing such a toxic political and cultural environment propelled by a frantic social media that has sought to turn every moment of the Trump presidency into “The Apprentice” meets “Game of Thrones” meets “The Gong Show.” Given such challenges, President Pence would have to make a series of quick decisions that would set the tone for his administration, determine the prospects for his policy agenda and, decide his own political future.
The Tasks:
1) Veepstakes
The most crucial early decision Pence would face would be in selecting his Number Two, who would also be an unelected vice president requiring confirmation by Congress. Historical precedent is unclear on this as presidents have taken differing approaches in accordance with their personal beliefs and agendas. Some, like Lyndon Johnson, who had a reputation as a conservative Southern Democrat, opted for a regional/philosophical balance with liberal Midwesterner Hubert Humphrey, more so to reassure the Kennedy crowd that he would not break with the martyred president’s civil rights legislation. Others, like Ford, went for an established national name who would provide instant gravitas and some “star power” to the administration to balance his own lower profile. That ‘Big Beast’ was New York governor and three-time presidential candidate Nelson Rockefeller.
In most cases, including Johnson’s, presidents did not elect to fill a VP vacancy until they ran for their own electoral mandate. One presumes that a President Pence would want to have someone in place a lot sooner than that, if for no simpler reason than to reassure a jittery nation. He has a number of options, as the GOP does have a deep bench of talent from which to choose.
He could be bold and select someone like Maine’s long-time Senator Susan Collins, to provide political (she is a moderate) and gender balance. He could go for the tried-and-true wise-man thing with an experienced national figure, like former 2012 nominee Mitt Romney. He could look for racial and geographic diversity with someone like South Carolina’s Senator Tim Scott (African-American) or former Governor and current U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (Indo-American) who has the added benefit of already having gone through the Senate confirmation process and would provide foreign policy experience as well as an injection of feisty charisma.
2. Dealing with the Trump factor
Pence would also have to decide what his stance would be toward former President Trump, whom Pence loyally supported through many crises. Does he pay tribute to the Trump record, and claim a role in it? Does he denounce it? Or does he, in the most likely scenario, chart a shaky path between those two extremes?
In part, this decision would depend on the manner of Trump’s departure, though it is safe to assume that Trump is unlikely ever to win widespread support from half of the nation even if he developed a cure for cancer, or saved nuns from a burning convent.
Pence would have to hold together a political party that did not win a majority of the popular vote in 2016 and that is split among Trump haters, Trump defenders and People Sick of (Melo)drama. At the same time, he’d be faced with a number of Republican officeholders who would seriously contemplate mounting a primary challenge to Pence come the next cycle (a la Ronald Reagan). Political watchers will keep an eye out, for senators like Tom Cotton or governors in the John Kasich mode holding fundraisers or booking events in vacation spots like Dubuque or Manchester.
3. The Team
The paradoxical thing about the Trump administration is that it’s actually filled with competent and capable Cabinet officials (especially the Foreign policy team) and agency heads who are not incompetent. Would this be a time to inject fresh faces, including those who might have found serving under Trump unpalatable -- or would he keep the current Trump team intact, at least until the next election? When LBJ assumed the office on JFK’s death, the answer was an obvious “Let us continue” (a much repeated 1964 nominating convention phrase). Conversely, when George H.W. Bush assumed the White House after the popular Ronald Reagan, he struck a note of independence, declaring that, “A new breeze is blowing”.
Would a Pence administration still want to build a southern border wall as a top agenda item? Would it support Trump-size tax cuts? Would it advance a major infrastructure bill that is both popular, expensive and hard to offset unless with draconian cuts to social spending? Who knows? Should he assume Trump’s office, Pence would certainly keep in mind that he was elected by voters who backed Trump’s priorities, even those that proved quite controversial.
4) From Russia with Love
Would a President Pence support the special counsel investigating these issues or would he pardon major players, like Ford did, to let the country move beyond them? Is there any chance that he was present at a meeting or meetings that might draw congressional or law-enforcement scrutiny? And how would a President Pence deal with President Putin -- as an enemy, a competitor, a friend?
5) The Poisoned Chalice
The vitriolic cloud of what passes as discourse hangs over Washington DC, immovable as a becalmed sailboat. It is not going to dissipate, should a Trump administration evolve into a Pence equivalent. The Washington press corps would be difficult to divert from its aggressive, occasionally extreme posture toward the Republican administration. Democrats in Congress, spurred on by the demands of their base, would hardly welcome opportunities to work with any president associated with Trump. Trump partisans across the country would continue to be embittered toward a GOP establishment that they believed never truly support ‘their’ guy, even after he won an improbable election victory. When Ford took office after Watergate, he declared, “Our long national nightmare is over.” But it really wasn’t. It took decades for the scars from these vicious, divisive political battles to heal; some never did. No matter how sincere or how skilled, it would be an impossible task for any leader to bring the nation together in any enduring fashion after the bitterness of this past (and current) year.
6) Man of Destiny
One consideration a President Pence might have to make quickly is a decision about his own future. Were he to munificently announce he wouldn’t seek election in his own right, he might send a message that the nation’s business comes before his own and claim to be a bipartisan bridge builder. On the other hand, he would also be declaring himself a “lame duck” at the outset of his tenure, which would make it harder to wield his power and influence to get anything done. And depending on when he inherited the presidency -- should that day ever come--he might have to go to work immediately to run for the White House, build a coalition and attract donors and supporters if he hopes to fend off a sizable number of 2020rivals.
Of course, the prospect of a Pence presidency is today mostly a liberal fever dream of those who have plotted to impeach Trump almost from the time he took office. But this political cycle moves so quickly and the news bombshells break so fast that it might be something the American people, and the Pence team, have to contemplate sooner than they think.