In what must be the worse kept secret in recent political memory the 14th Malaysian general election has been officially called for May 9th, 2018. And not a moment too soon, it seems. The political posturing during the pre-announcement period seemed interminable, with lots of shadow-boxing, and trash-talking more akin to a prize fight or MMA bout. Add to this the drama of past alliances, subsequent betrayals, the twilight of a once-revered former prime minister seemingly intent on knifing each of his successors in turn, a scandal-plagued would-be-self-proclaimed reformer whose ‘ideals’ were compromised early both by losing the popular vote then an errant bank account deposit of gargantuan proportions.
The thing about Malaysia’s general election is that is actually counts for something. The federal constitutional monarchic state has come of age, its 32 million people enjoying a degree of economic stability and (albeit patchy) expansion at relatively average rates with its economy moving away from its traditional rubber and palm-oil base to a much more service-orientated technological and intellectual-commodity-centric model. Moreover, while serious questions remain about the nation’s ability to escape what was once endemic corruption and bureaucratic red tape, not to mention serious socio-cultural challenges (i.e. race relations between its Malay majority <50.1%> and robust minorities (Chinese 22.6%, 11.8% indigenous, 6.8% Indian), its very geographical location has placed at the very juncture of American and Chinese strategic interests. Thus, whomever wins the reins of electoral power will have to deal with the regional superpower as Xi Jinping floors the throttle on his “Belt and Road” initiative all the while seeking to balance its peaceful Muslim traditions with a Donald Trump whose worldview does not even seem to concede that followers of that religion can be law-abiding citizens.
In reality, Prime Minister Najib Razak almost ran out the clock anyway, for on June 24th parliament would have been automatically dissolved. Economically, he was also boxed in: Malaysia's economy grew 5.9% year-on-year in 2017, but the outlook for 2018 may not be so rosy, as many analysts predict a slowdown that would present a challenge for Najib and his ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition. No civil servant wage increase or budget goodie giveaway can mitigate the effects of a sharp downturn for the government’s own projections foresee a deceleration, with growth pegged between 5% and 5.5% this year.
The salient reality is that while GDP numbers were good, on the front lines of everyday living more and more consumers lack cash to spend on groceries that are steadily rising in price. While part of this rise is attributed by the opposition parties to the government’s new Goods and Services Tax, former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad has pointed out that growing numbers of graduates were driving for Uber (before its southeast Asian operations began to be sold off), and its local rival Grab, instead of working in their chosen fields of study.
Yet at this stage it looks, sounds, and feels as though the election is boring everyone -- voters, donors, activists, supporters, and party functionaries -- to tears. Since the undeniable drama of the 2013 election -- when the opposition parties, then led by Anwar, actually won the popular vote but failed to win government due to the vagaries of parliamentary seat distribution -- discussion in and about Malaysia has focused on tactics and financial scandals, none of which has actually yielded any change.
Small wonder then that in media studios, food courts, street stalls, and offices, political observers, armchair pundits and real or imagined ‘insiders’ are doubtlessly performing the same routine: first, they sigh and look bored with the coming electoral contest, a lumbering sumo match between senior citizens leading each major political agglomeration. They murmur of the lack of debate and point to a group of young people on Twitter, now called the #undirosak movement after politicians and the media amplified their voices, who call on voters to protest by lodging spoiled ballot papers.
Some are annoyed that years spent building an electoral alternative to the BN government now appear futile, after 92-year-old former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad abruptly crossed the aisle and seemingly captured the opposition leadership with nary a squeak of protest. His party is now set to run the largest number of candidates in the electoral coalition called the Pakatan Harapan. So much for at least the most visible trapping of change, as voters could be forgiven for thinking that the Galactic Emperor has switched sides and is now the head of the Rebel Alliance.
Then they begin recounting the various futures the election result might bring, becoming increasingly animated (or agitated) as they go on. There are as many different versions of this conversation as there are speakers, but in short, seats might fall; voter blocs might split or swing; states might change governments; voters on either side may or may not come out to vote; internal faction fights might cause leadership rifts; royal families might intervene, or perhaps end up backing the wrong team; and the Borneo states might side with whichever grouping wins the most seats on the Peninsula.
The talk sometimes becomes darker, even conspiratorial, including “fake news” (?) speculation about clandestine visits either by the wily Najib and/or his Deputy Ahmad Zahid Hamidi to jailed opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim. Are government people working on a Plan B should Najib’s majority narrow? What will Najib be willing to offer PAS -- Malaysia’s main Islamist party -- if he’s compelled to turn to their support to either win the election or form a government? Seats in cabinet? Control of the Tabung Haji, the fund in which Muslim would-be pilgrims save money to travel to Mecca on the Haj? Implementation of Sharia Law? This loose talk raises the spectre of a hitherto successful secular state being driven by forces which could put it at odds with the Western powers, much less the mercurial current occupant of the White House.
Then, with a sigh, follows the invariable reflection that perhaps messages and voices in this election are just too annoying, too confusing, too shrill, too tactical, and that everyone should ease up in case party members and supporters decide to vote against their preferred parties in reactionary disgust and anger. The Trumpian scenario then, a pox on everyone’s house, with only cacophonous chaos as the true winner.
At this point the chatter would probably halt, as participants find themselves exhausted of any more permutations, before finally admitting that the whole thing is actually rather exciting in a curious kind of way, if nothing else then for the same reason that has caused the undercurrent of trepidation: its very uncertainty. Unlike elections in some neighbouring countries, anything is theoretically possible.
What’s been missing is actual substantive public policy debate, or any form of discussion about the nation’s post-2013 trajectory: is it on the right path or not, and if so, why or why not? Although everyone’s talking about politics, it seems this diverse and remarkably sophisticated electorate has yet to find the sweet spot for a proper informed exchange of ideas.
As with many other ASEAN countries, there has developed a wide divergence between the elites from all sides with what is actually happening on the ground, between pontifications uttered in air-conditioned ivory towers and real life as experienced in the polluted, heat-and humidity-sated streets.
If the election is viewed only through the prism of polling, where the numbers are with the government, this is going to be a cakewalk for the BN. Yet if local conversations are any guide, there is, under this surface boredom, a quiet current of contestation circulating via word of mouth and on the encrypted WhatsApp. One early pre-election call video, in Malay, shows Mahathir telling viewers he will not be with them for much longer, so Malaysians must not sell the nation into new colonial servitude only for short-term gain. It’s a message that plainly alludes to China, Malaysia (and ASEAN’s) increasing dependency on a nation that tends to treat its “partners” like indentured servants, whose track record of “investment” in factories is one step above Dickensian slavery, the Barisan government and the zombie-like 1MDB financial scandal. No matter your preferred language, the message is that the nation and its people are in grave danger from China and, by implication, the Malaysian authorities.
The Opposition has a few tools this time around: its monitoring how and where to micro-target its messages, using Facebook, WhatsApp, and a machine built by convicted politician Rafizi Ramli. Mahathir is a practiced streetfighter and master of the wedge issue who knows the governing coalition’s tactics all too well, as after all, he helped create them.
Yet Najib, in his own right, is a savvy political operator with a wily mind and a keen sense of survival. Moreover, he has actually not been a bad prime minister/finance minister (he holds both posts), having done yeoman work in raising his country’s profile across the world, allowing it to inject itself into geopolitics with his calculated pronouncements on the Rohingya and skilful courting of China.
Barisan, too, is modernized, using social media, and sensing that its voter “fixed deposits” -- Malay Muslim civil servants, women, rural voters and pensioners -- are increasingly exposed to opposition messaging and potentially less predisposed towards the ruling coalition. Both sides have engaged international consultants, and each can deduce what the other is doing, can sense its weak spots being hit while its opponents move against it, protected by WhatsApp’s encryption.
All this surface boredom among the electorate speaks to temporary exhaustion from processing all the possibilities, sifting through the confusing messages and jammed signals, deciphering the psych-war between the two competing coalitions. As the election unfolds, messages will likely become sharper and clearer, while election spending ramps up and Malaysians’ energy returns closer to voting day.
Make no mistake. An epic battle may develop because, at the very heart of this electoral contest is a simple, undebatable fact: this is very likely to be the last confrontation between Mahathir and Najib, with the winner sending the loser off into enforced obscurity. Either the old lion will take down his last successor, or the apprentice will become the master of the nation for years to come.
It’s a fight, lah, one might say.