It’s a batting average no one involved should be proud of. For the past generation, sitting American presidents have tried confrontation, cajoling, bargaining and bartering with North Korea. All have failed. One thing that was left untried is flattery. If President Donald Trump somehow succeeds in his unorthodox attempt to flatter (rather than batter, as his overheated rhetoric earlier this year may have suggested) Kim Jong Un into submission, it is simply because he understands vanity better than most leaders. Indeed, few rulers have proved vainer about themselves and their position in the world over the years than North Korea’s goose-stepping, turkey-strutting procession of “great leaders”: Kim; his father, Kim Jong Il; and his grandfather Kim Il Sung.
Thus, it takes one to know one.
As expected, much of the world’s elite punditocracy set about busily mocking Trump’s performance at the Singapore summit. On full display was his real estate salesman’s thin half-smirk, vigorous handshaking and reassuring yet vaguely condescending soft pats on the back of the North Korean dictator as they strode purposefully first to meetings then onto what can only be described as a generous lunch. One could almost sense the chorus of disapproval from these commentators as Trump greeted Kim as a peer (their copious forms etched against an impressive array of equally-tall American and North Korean flags) and told him what an honor it was to meet him, then declared Kim a “very talented man.”
Most of all, the pundits guffaw about the White House-produced video that Trump presented to Kim before the summit, which in the age of the CGI-sated blockbuster came across to jaded eyes like an MGM movie trailer from the ’50s, with a stentorian narrator portraying the two leaders as men of destiny and showing North Koreans the wondrous possibilities of becoming rich. Just one more act of amateurish, sensational idiocy from an administration that has never gained legitimacy with them.
There’s a scene in the highly-acclaimed film “Network” when the TV poobah played by Ned Beatty realizes that the only way he can ever win over the crazed prophet/anchor played by Peter Finch (of “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore!” fame) is to address him in the style of a mystical prophet himself.
That is precisely what Trump appears to be doing with Kim. Trump the Kim Whisperer.
When viewed through this lens the outwardly corny video takes on greater subliminal importance: this is Trump era diplomacy where the US president is talking to Kim in a grandiose, overwrought language the two men understand. Remember, for all its nuclear arsenal, the Hermit Kingdom is very much stuck in time (this is only Kim’s third meeting with a head of state, and the third trip he’s taken after assuming power), with its people living in circumstances similar to China’s prior to Deng Xiaoping’s bold reforms, and subject to, by our standards, daily massive dosages of crude propaganda. In fact, look closer and the much-maligned White House video appears to have been deliberately crafted to resemble North Korean political pablum. If the first rule of diplomacy is to speak to the other party in familiar language -- visual or otherwise -- then the video’s message likely fell on receptive ears.
It doesn’t hurt that the Kim family are said to be particularly enthralled with Hollywood movies and the production is jampacked with overwrought tropes designed to appeal in a short running time. The hackneyed scenes in the Trump video in which the celluloid starts to burn and melt while the narrator is talking about the dangers of “going back” are cinematically brilliant, at least in terms of North Korean sensibilities. They provide a just-unsubtle-enough reminder to Kim that if Pyongyang doesn’t denuclearize, Trump still has the ability to rain “fire and fury”.
All of which brings us to the key point: What exactly do the US and its allies have to lose by being nice, by stroking Kim’s ego and promising him “prosperity like he has never seen” (to quote the video) and long-sought-for acceptance as a world leader? Pride?
Just about everything else has been tried — if words were water we’d all have drowned long ago — and yet the Kim regime has marched to the precipice of virtual invulnerability to U.S. retaliation. Let’s be clear on this: Pyongyang is likely within months of testing a nuclear-tipped missile that could reach U.S. shores. That is no longer some distant, comical threat. It is a clear and present danger.
It’s noteworthy that Kim promised Trump at the summit — according to Trump, anyway — that he would destroy a major missile engine testing site. If he doesn’t do that and doesn’t open up his nuclear program to inspectors quickly, well, that only brings us back to square one: the nowhere place that every previous administration was stuck in, with one key difference: a pre-emptive military strike by the US still remains a viable option, and indeed Trump finds himself in a strengthened position to launch one now that he’s gone an unprecedented distance on diplomacy. Suspending military exercises with South Korea for the moment, while awaiting concrete action from Kim, seems a very minor concession, regional jitters aside.
Smiling, cherubic and weirdly able to project a measure of charm, young Kim Jong Un for the moment looks receptive to the Trumpian overtures. Even as he has brutally consolidated power – executing first his uncle and then having his half-brother assassinated all the while cracking down on what little dissent exists in his quasi-Stalinist state – he seems to understand that while nuclear weapons may give one instant negotiating legitimacy, securing one’s rule (and longevity) lies with ensuring economic stability.
To that extent, Kim has made limited efforts at economic reform, doubtlessly urged on by a China increasingly weary of supporting such an inherently unstable neighbouring state. While changes reminiscent of what Deng Xiaoping initiated in late 1980s China may await greater normalization of relations with South Korea and the West, transforming that nation into a booming market autocracy is undoubtedly a regime objective. No one knows exactly what his game is with Trump, beyond being seen as a credible world leader but as the US president remarked after their meeting, this generation’s Kim seems to be no dummy. Still only in his mid-30s, Kim could be trying to arrange a nuclear pause just long enough perhaps to induce the withdrawal of U.S. troops, which he knows Trump favours -- so he can focus on economic progress for a period, and then ultimately resume Pyongyang’s old aggression and military build-up, albeit in a much stronger position. In any case, he has the luxury of time, and can simply wait out both Trump and South Korean president Moon Jae-in, who are both term-limited.
Whether Donald Trump can play the long game is another matter entirely. Unsurprisingly, given past behaviour, the likely biggest danger to Trump’s current approach is his own outsized vanity. Uninterested in the historical backstory of the Korean conflict he seems to think that this singular meeting has ensured that the deal is all but done, and that a Nobel Prize awaits. “Just landed — a long trip, but everybody can now feel much safer than the day I took office,” Trump tweeted. “There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea.”
No, War is Not Over. Not yet anyway.
There’s the pesky question of actual detail to be ironed out, for example the timetable and compliance of whatever form the much ballyhooed word “denuclearisation” would take. And it didn’t help much when Secretary of State Mike Pompeo -- who has taken the lead in the talks and perhaps sees himself sharing in that Nobel Prize -- took umbrage at a perfectly reasonable question from a reporter about details on verification, calling it “insulting and ridiculous and, frankly, ludicrous.” Pompeo said only that the United States wants North Korea to take “major” nuclear disarmament steps within the next two years, before the end of Trump’s first term, but that could mean anything. South Korea is trying to help define these conditions, by stating that it would be a very big step for all sides to declare an end to the Korean War by the end of 2018.
By all means, make Kim feel welcome, wanted and as respected as any dictator with a horrendous human rights recod can. Stroke his vanity till it swells to Hindenburg-like proportions, Mr. Trump. You certainly know all about that subjectt. Hopefully, it may well be that all Kim desires is not to feel threatened by Washington.,,
…But do get him to commit to something concrete, measurable and verifiable in return.
And please do so very soon.