Abiy Ahmed. An exotic foreign city? A World Cup soccer player? A frozen dessert?
Those unfamiliar with current events could be forgiven for mistaking Ethiopia’s Prime Minister for any of the above options, such is the general state of awareness these days. Yet, should time and tide prove in the least bit generous to Abiy, he may well become more of a household name.
Since assuming office in April following the surprise resignation of his predecessor, strongman Haile Mmariam Dessalegn, the 42-year-old former Army lieutenant colonel with a doctorate in conflict resolution (he actually has a BA in computer engineering, a post graduate certificate in cryptography, an MA in transformational leadership and change as well as an MBA) has electrified Ethiopia with his informal style, charisma and energy, earning gushing comparisons in western media to Nelson Mandela, Justin Trudeau, Barack Obama and Mikhail Gorbachev.
While typical media hyperbole exacerbated by the current dearth of admirable political leaders may partially be responsible for this surfeit of accolades, there is no doubt that Abiy is a young man in a hurry. He has reshuffled his cabinet, fired a series of controversial and hitherto untouchable civil servants, reached out to hostile neighbours and rivals, lifted bans on websites and other media, freed thousands of political prisoners, ordered the partial privatisation of massive state-owned companies and ended a state of emergency imposed to quell widespread unrest. He has also fired the head of Ethiopia’s prison service after repeated allegations of widespread torture, and removed three opposition groups from its lists of “terrorist” organisations.
In a nation accustomed to the glacial speed of change these initiatives amount to nothing less than unprecedented accelerated radical reform programme. His primary task is to satisfy in some measure the expectations of all groups in such a diverse, vast and strategically positioned country. That in and of itself would pose a significant challenge for even the most experienced statesmen but Abiy has given no external hint that he shirks from confronting the challenges. Rather, he governs with obvious relish for the job which goes some way to restoring respect for a political and public service profession which has been much-maligned both in his country and across the entire continent.
Most significantly, on a continent dominated by undemocratic elected regimes with venal human rights records wracked with civil wars and conflicts driven by tribal divisions and delusions of territorial acquisition, Abiy has sought to make peace. On Sunday, the former soldier met president Isaiah Afwerki of Eritrea in a surprise bid to end one of Africa’s longest running conflicts -- apart from a five-year lull after Eritrean independence in 1993, bitter hostility has defined the relationship between the two nations. Even a border war between 1998 and 2000 left 70,000 dead.
The two men hugged and laughed in scenes unthinkable just months ago. Two nations that were bitter enemies for half a century, who fought wars that left tens of thousands dead and many more displaced, have embraced peace in the space of a few days. Ethiopia says it will withdraw its troops from the Badme region, as Eritrea has long demanded The two countries are to re-establish diplomatic relations. Flights between the two national capitals will resume in due course. Most recently it was Afwerki who returned the visit, sparking hope that the peace will hold.
This is very big news not only for Africa. The rapprochement between Ethiopia and smaller neighbour Eritrea offers an example to the world of what is possible with bold leadership. The peace initiative was the latest and boldest move from a prime minister who has become adept at stunning his own people and by so doing energised pro-democracy activists across the continent.
Ethiopia, a country that was for so long stereotyped in the West as a symbol of all that was wrong in Africa - the nation of famine and Bob Geldof's BandAid – has always had the potential to evolve into a standard-bearer of change. But there are formidable obstacles. Despite an International Monetary Fund forecast predicting that it would be the fastest-growing economy in sub-Saharan Africa in 2018, even the officially sanctioned press has admitted the country’s serious difficulties.
There is a critical shortage of foreign currency, only temporarily solved by an infusion of cash from the United Arab Emirates. There is growing inequality, a shortage of jobs for a huge number of graduates, significant environmental damage, ethnic tensions and a hunger for change.
Different interest groups have come together in recent years to constitute a powerful groundswell of discontent, with widespread anti-government protests led by young people. In a nation where at least 70% of the population is below the age of 30 by necessity youth are the active force behind the country’s potential growth. Abiy and his ruling party have come to the realization that there is great urgency in creating and deploying a new economic model fundamentally different from the previous feudal and communist-inspired systems of yesteryear in order to generate enough progress to create more job opportunities while respecting simultaneously political and civil rights. Ethiopia has a long history of police-state tactics that not only played fast and loose with “laws” geared towards protecting the few while ensuring that dissent was forcibly muzzled or ruthlessly dealt with.
Powerful forces remain determined to thwart Abiy’s initiatives. Last month, a grenade was thrown at a rally organised to showcase popular support for the reforms in Addis Ababa’s vast Meskel Square, where many among the tens of thousands supporters wore clothes displaying the new prime minister’s image and carried signs saying “one love, one Ethiopia”. Two fatalities resulted and more than 150 were injured in the blast and the subsequent panicked stampede. Officials said there had been other efforts to disrupt the rally, including a power outage and a partial shutdown of the phone network. At least 30 civilians and nine police officers were arrested.
In an address shortly after the terror attack, Abiy invoked Gandhian rhetoric: “Love always wins. Killing others is a defeat. To those who tried to divide us, I want to tell you that you have not succeeded,” he said.
As with all attempts at changing ossified political systems, a likely institutional culprit could be hard-line elements within Ethiopia’s powerful military and security services, all of which have vested interests in maintaining the status quo. Another could be a political faction backed by a military-industrial complex opposed to the effort to find peace with neighbouring Eritrea. The prime minister has sought to bring the armed forces under civilian control by making the generals directly accountable to the cabinet and supporting bureaucracy,
Another source of resistance to Abiy’s rule lies with culturally-centric threats. The ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), the rebel coalition that ousted the Derg military regime in 1991, is riven by factional battles between four ethnically based parties as well as fierce competition between institutions and individuals from these aggregations.
Tigrayans, an ethnic community centred in the north, make up about 6% of the population but are generally considered to dominate the political and business elite. Abiy is from Ethiopia’s largest ethnic community, the Oromo, who have complained for decades of economic, cultural and political marginalisation, was seen as a relative political outsider before being picked for the top job by the EPRDF council. Moreover, there are groups in Ethiopia that already feel betrayed by the new leadership. Irob people, a minority group living in Ethiopia's Tigray region, expressed their dismay at Ahmed's decision to normalise relations with Eritrea, which could see part of their territory ceded to their neighbour.
Born in western Ethiopia, Abiy joined the resistance against the regime of Mengistu Haile Mariam as a teenager before enlisting in the armed forces, reaching the rank of lieutenant-colonel. He has a doctorate in peace and security studies. After a stint running Ethiopia’s cyberintelligence service, he entered politics eight years ago and rose rapidly up the ranks of the Oromo faction of the EPRDF, which has historically been at odds with the Tigrayans.
Analysts say Abiy’s mixed Christian and Muslim background (his father is a Muslim Oromo, mother a Christian Amhara), and fluency in three of the country’s main languages allow him to bridge communal and sectarian divides. He has also reached out to women, making an unprecedented mention of his wife and mother in his acceptance speech so as to attempt to broaden his political base. Unity and diversity, Abiy argues, not division and hatred, are essential to the cohesion of the Ethiopian state.
Yet, for all the Abiymania sweeping both Ethiopia and the west, it is essential to keep in mind that no one actually elected him to the prime ministership. As with all institutions facing an ever-increasing – and bewildering – series of challenges, it’s a fair bet that the EPRDF selected him not because he was the one likely to bring an era of greatness and freedom to the country, but rather that he was the single individual judged most likely to put a new face on the ancien regime and perpetuate its rule.
We’ve been here before. In the 1980s and 1990s, a number of revolutionary African leaders came to power espousing reform and democracy, too. It was an auspicious time when the Cold War, the proxy wars of the US and the Soviet Union, and the apartheid government in South Africa were fading and a new era in African politics seemed imminent.
Yet the subsequent record has been disappointing:
In 1986, Yoweri Museveni came to power in Uganda after helping overthrow dictatorships.
Update: Museveni is now on his fifth term as president after both amending the Constitution in 2005 to remove term limits and pushing through a law removing presidential age limits which, in effect, allows him to rule itill death. He has moved to stifle the opposition, throwing opposition leader Kizza Besigye in jail on treason charges, and allowed corruption and nepotism to run rampant.
In 1991, Meles Zenawi became Ethiopia's president after toppling Mengistu Hailemariam's military government.
Update: Zenawi also pursued repressive politics, jailing thousands of activists, opposition members and journalists, cracking down on freedom of expression and engaging in electoral fraud and violence, all of which Abiy has, or has sought to, reverse.
In 1993, Isaias Afwerki became the first president of Eritrea after battling for independence in a decades-long war.
Update: Afwerki has instead built a dictatorship, hermetically sealed off from the rest of the world on lines very similar to North Korea.
In 1994, Paul Kagame became the vice president and de-facto ruler of Rwanda after helping end the genocide.
-Kagame has been running nothing short of a police state ever since then, and is psoitioning himself for near-perpetual rule.
But there is reason to hope. All of the leaders listed previously have presided over declinations in standards of living, rampant economic dislocation and civil unrest. And there is no better incentive to drive change than a regime looking to ensure its long-term survival.
Moreover, the ultimate template for Ethiopia to avoid lies merely a stone’s throw away across the eastern border in Somalia, a failed state of incipient lawlessness presided over by a Mad Max-like rabble of roving youth gangs armed to the teeth which has so far resisted even the United States’ efforts to restore stability.
The cycle of despair and disappointment that has gripped Africa's polity needs to be broken. For once, Ethiopia's people hope that a leader like Abiy's words will align with the reality he delivers.